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The Liberals have done so poorly in some of the southern booth that they have fallen to fourth place.
Interestingly, last election there were swings away from the Greens in the wealthier northern suburbs (Coledale, Austinmer, Thirroul) and inner-western suburbs with a high number of white-collar professionals and students (Gwynneville, Keiraville, Mount Keira). There were sizable swings to the Greens in traditionally working-class suburbs south of Wollongong’s town centre.
The Liberals will fall to fourth place next election if the recent One Nation polling surge eventuates. The southern suburbs (south of Wollongong’s CBD) are economically reliant on steelmaking and shipping. The economic nationalism rhetoric of One Nation could win over more socially conservative, blue-collar workers.
Votante, i agree with your analysis, the only point i would make is that Cunningham overall is a progressive seats more so than Average hence it votes Yes to both Voice and Republic. I mentioned this when discussing Corio previously. As Wollongong is a bigger city than Geelong this seat is more urbanised than Corio and a lot of the working class parts of Wollongong are in Whitlam. The Southern part of Wollongong and the wollongong parts of Whitlam are classic White Working class areas like Brand, Spence and the state seat of Lara where ONP is competative while Cunningham overall is way too progressive and is actually better educated than average.
Nimalan, yes. Overall, it is progressive. Wollongong’s inner and northern suburbs have gentrified. They’ve attracted sea-changers, the creative class, white-collar professionals and the commuters. They used to be very working class and once had a coal industry.
I agree that the southern suburbs of Cunningham are like Brand and Spence and ONP could reach second. The centre of Wollongong and Northern suburbs will see the Greens come second.